Aurora forecast
How far the aurora oval reaches tonight depends on latitude — the geomagnetic numbers below are the same for everyone.
Can you see the aurora tonight?
Geomagnetic activity is global — the Kp index and solar wind below apply to everyone. Whether that activity reaches your sky depends on your magnetic latitude, your darkness and your cloud cover.
Global space weather · Monday 19 October
Geomagnetic activity is quiet
Planetary Kp is 0.3 — quiet conditions. Kp measures how far the auroral oval has pushed away from the magnetic poles, and it is a single global number: the same Kp applies in Tromsø, Toronto and Tasmania. It does not say the aurora is over your head.
- Planetary Kp
- 0.3
- IMF Bz
- 2.0 nT
- Solar wind speed
- 387 km/s
- Wind density
- —
- Oval reach at Kp
- ~65° mag. lat.
NOAA SWPC, 3-hour index, 0–9
Southward (negative) values couple energy into the magnetosphere
Above ~500 km/s often lifts Kp
Denser wind pushes harder on the magnetosphere
Equatorward edge of the typical auroral oval at this Kp
Kp, Bz, wind speed and density are properties of the Sun–Earth system, so they are safe to state for everyone. Whether the oval reaches your magnetic latitude, whether your sky is dark at the right hour and whether cloud will hide it are local questions — that is the verdict SnapCosmos produces once you set a location.
Location not set
Set a location for an aurora verdict
Kp tells you how far the auroral oval has expanded. Only your latitude tells you whether that is far enough to reach you.
- The Kp level needed at your latitude
- Live Kp and Bz compared against it
- Whether your sky is dark enough tonight
- Local cloud cover folded into the verdict
Your choice stays in this browser. Nothing is sent to a SnapCosmos server.
Recent trend
Kp over the last 24 hours
Each bar is a three-hour Kp reading. A rising trend often precedes a substorm; a sustained value above your latitude's threshold means the oval is holding at your door.
Practical
How to actually see the northern lights
Even during a strong storm, most aurora chasers see nothing — because they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time, or looking the wrong way. The fix is boring: dark, north, and patient.
Get to a dark, north-facing horizon. Light pollution and southern-facing terrain will kill your chances even during a strong storm. In the Southern Hemisphere, flip everything and face south.
Time it around magnetic midnight. Statistically, aurora is most active between 22:00 and 02:00 local time — this is when your location sits deepest on the night side of Earth.
Watch Bz, not just Kp. A negative (southward) Bz opens the door for aurora. Watch for sustained values below −5 nT — that's when a "Kp 4 night" can suddenly become a Kp 6 night.
Check the sky, not just the space weather. Aurora happens ~100 km up — well above weather clouds. Cross-reference the geomagnetic data with our Tonight page for local cloud cover, and the Moon page if you want dark-sky detail.
Trust the camera. Faint aurora can look grey to the naked eye but shows vivid green on a 3-second phone night-mode exposure. Confirm activity fast, then decide whether to stay or move.
Photographing the aurora
Match your shutter to how fast it's dancing
Aurora rewards a specific instinct: as the display gets brighter and more active, shorten your shutter — don't lengthen it. A 20-second exposure of an active corona is a smeared green blob; a 2-second exposure of the same scene shows the pillars.
| Intensity | ISO | Aperture | Shutter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Faint glow (Kp 3–4) | 3200 | f/2.8 | 15–20 s |
| Distinct arc (Kp 5) | 1600 | f/2.8 | 8–15 s |
| Active bands (Kp 6) | 1600 | f/2.8 | 4–8 s |
| Bright, fast motion (Kp 7+) | 800 | f/2.8 | 1–4 s |
| Corona overhead | 800 | f/2 | 0.5–2 s |
- • Use a wide lens (14–24 mm) — auroral displays often fill the whole sky.
- • Manual focus on a bright star with live-view at 10×. Tape the focus ring once dialled in.
- • Set white balance to 3500–4000 K to keep green pure and skies neutral.
- • A foreground silhouette (tree line, cabin, mountain) turns a documentation shot into a photograph.
Reference
Where the aurora shows up by Kp
A rough guide to which latitudes typically see aurora at each Kp level. Your line on this table is what determines whether tonight is 'geomagnetically interesting for you' or not.
- Kp 0–2Quiet — visible only very close to the magnetic poles.
- Kp 3Northern Norway, northern Alaska, Iceland.
- Kp 4Central Norway, most of Iceland, central Alaska, Yukon.
- Kp 5Southern Norway, Scotland, northern US border states.
- Kp 6Denmark, southern Sweden, northern US (WA/MT/MN/NY/ME).
- Kp 7Northern Germany, Poland, mid-latitude US (CO, KS, IL, PA).
- Kp 8–9Central Europe, southern US — rare severe storms.
What it is
Where auroras actually come from
The Sun continuously blows a stream of charged particles across the solar system — the solar wind. Most of it flows past Earth, deflected by our magnetic field. But when a solar flare or coronal mass ejection (CME) sends a denser, faster burst — and when its own magnetic field points southward relative to Earth's — some of that energy is funnelled down the magnetic field lines toward the poles.
When those particles slam into oxygen and nitrogen atoms about 100 km above the ground, the atoms briefly gain energy and then release it as light: green from oxygen at 100 km, red from oxygen higher up, purples and blues from nitrogen. What you see from the ground is the shape of Earth's magnetic field made visible.
The Sun is currently near the peak of its 11-year activity cycle (Solar Cycle 25), so the coming years are unusually good for aurora hunters — even at mid-latitudes where a "quiet" year would show almost nothing.
Frequently asked questions
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